Welsh Journals

one simply cannot grow crops, so no permanent settlement based on agri- culture can develop. But interacting with this come the chance factors of natural resources, the exploitation of which sometimes led to unexpected developments of settlement. Industrial development of all sorts affects the pattern, as do changes in population, for whatever reason. West Wales has always been primarily an agricultural area: the influence of topography and climate on agriculture, and hence on settle- ment, is obvious. Geographically it is part of the highland zone: less than half of the land-surface is below 500ft., with considerable mountain areas. The only low-lying land is coastal or in the river valleys, which restricts the areas available for easy arable farming. In parts of the uplands arable farming is possible on a small scale, but the growing season is short and the soil generally poor. Lhuyd noted in 1690 that the hill-country of Merion- eth had 'corn ground in small patches' and Lewis stated in 1833 that every farm in Cardiganshire had some arable land, the amount depending on the quality of the soil and the position.3 But for the most part the uplands were used for pasture and only the lowlands for crops. However, the boundary between the two shifted with changes in climate and sometimes for other reasons as well. At the climatic optimum of the thirteenth century there was arable farming in south Merioneth to 1000ft., and on the southern slopes of Plynlimon crops were grown to the same altitude by paring and burning the moorland. 4 But after this came the 'Little Ice Age': average temperatures were lower in the period 1550- 1770, with slight rises during the 1730s. Annual rainfall was also less, but the summers were generally wet. After the 1790s rainfall and temper- ature rose again, but there were a few disastrous periods which were reflected most dramatically in the price of grain (Fig. X. 2). There had been bad winters in 1564 and 1579, but it was much worse at the end of the eighteenth century. The winter of 1788-9 was bad, with high sheep mortality; in 1794 and 1795 there were poor harvests, leading to food riots in places. In 1799 and 1800 the harvests were very bad and this situation was exacerbated by the lack of imported grain due to the Napoleonic Wars. Hence there was an unprecedented leap in the price of wheat-it more than doubled within ten years. But the end of the war did not bring relief: in 1816- the year without a summer'-the weather was even worse. A combination of unusual east winds with exceptionally low temperatures (possibly due in part to volcanic dust from the eruption of the volcano of Tambora in the East Indies) gave almost continuous rain from May to October. The harvest failed, and there was near-famine in some areas. 5