Welsh Journals

Internationally she has been in a strait betwixt two. Is she likely to gain most by linking her- self with the West or the East? By giving scope to a deeply rooted instinct- the Impulsion to the East-she can get an un- limited supply of raw materials from Russia. By linking herself with the West-What is the Return to be? Is the Western Security Pact going to compensate her for the Surrender of the Treaty of Rapallo ? 3. Germany and the Security Pact. — We shall know to-morrow (July 22) the terms of the Ger- man Note in response to the French Note of June 16, but Germany is not likely to enter into any Pact without a clear understanding as to (1) A guarantee of a revision of existing Treaties. (2) A Conference on a footing of equality between the parties to the Pact. (3) The preamble of Part V. of the Ver- sailles Treaty which states that the disarming of Germany is preliminary to a general scheme of disarmament. Nor, perhaps, will she unreservedly join the League of Nations while (1) Foreign soldiers are in occupation of her territory. (2) There is a possibility of a French army marching through Germany to the aid of Poland if attacked by Russia. 4. Russia. Russia-an increasingly important factor in International Affairs. (1) Impressed by talks with Communists in France and in Germany that there is no faith in possibility of immediate World Revolution. (2) There are Communists who contend that Soviet basis is the only basis of World Peace because it eliminates danger of militant nationalism. They argue that National Sovereignty is incompatible with International Peace, and that Sovereign States can never become an abiding single Community of Nations. Sooner or later there will be a crash-FACIST--CAPITALISTIC- NATIONALISTIC STATES will plunge into War. One of the test questions," said a Communist to me, One of the test questions of Inter- national Co-operation on a Nationalistic basis is Immigration." It is the Emigrant," he said, who will be the death of the League of Nations." While we may dismiss, with im- patience, so sweeping a judgment-Immigration problem is one of the most delicate of all Inter- national difficulties-it affects profoundly two of the great powers-IT AL Y and JAPAN. C. 1. Italy. (a) Chief export of Italy is Italians." (b) France much bigger in size than Italy, population nearly the same. Annual Surplua Area. Population. Population. France. 551,000 Kilometers. 39,200,000 None. Italy. 311,000 Kilometers 38,836,000 300,000 (c) In North Africa, Algeria is a French Colony, Tunis and Morocco are French Pro- tectorates. Italy has only Tripoli-poor for colonizing. (d) Italian quota for United States now almost negligible — Outlet difficulty getting increasingly acute. (e) Always at back of Mussolini's mind is the Italian Emigrant. 2. Japan. At bottom Japanese question is the Immigration Question. Here it raises very sharply great issues- (1) National Sovereignty. (2) Right of equal citizenship the world over. Attitude of America, Canada, and Australia- repercussion throughout Asiatic World. It may force the East to attempt a sort of Eastern Mon- roe Doctrine-" the Asiatic Seas for Asiatic Peoples." Here probably we get at real meaning and purpose of Singapore Base. We are talking now about Cruisers and naval armaments as if Washington Conference had never been held. Why? A high Japanese authority said to me- "It is true that Japanese Admirals do not object to Singapore base. Why should they? It makes it easier for them as it makes it easier for your Admirals to get more cruisers. Besides I should not be surprised if Japanese Naval Staff do not think Singapore Base can be made quite as impregnable as the British Naval Staff imagine." No wonder President Coolidge failed to find any enthusiasm for proposal for a Second Washington Conference and that our Foreign Secretary should speak of the FEAP-haunting, nervous Fear which broods over the Nations. II. ORGANISING FOR PEACE. A. 1. The Fear-new kind of Fear-when time comes of not being able to strike first." (a) Can this new mass feeling of insecurity be converted into a mass feeling of con- fidence and trust? That is the first of all questions bearing on International Rela- tions. (b) Happily we are getting to see that it can- not be done by concentrating our efforts upon Prevention of War -We must concentrate on Organising for Peace."